Digging Into the Future

Will archaeologists and anthropologists in the year 2520 find evidence of the Covid-19 pandemic? The Tightly-Furled Umbrella ponders the possibilities…

I’ve always found archaeology fascinating, even though I’ve never taken part in a dig and have no qualifications. There was a time (let’s call it the Couchascene Period) where I could be found in front of the telly totally absorbed in Time Team. Trying to get me away from it would have been like trying to lift a complete Roman marble column out of the ground, so rooted to the spot was I.

Archaeological dig. Image: Wikimedia Commons

What I dig most about archaeology is the forensic detective work that goes with it – the analysis of items found, the layers in the ground, the comparison with what’s known historically of the area, the precision of carbon-dating and the eventual conclusions or suppositions about the finds. Modern-day archaeology has all the theatre of a crime drama, with clues unfolding gradually until a fuller picture emerges.

So you can imagine my excitement when I read recently about some ice core samples from the Swiss Alps (no seriously, stay with me...) that showed variations in medieval atmospheric lead pollution that can be linked to taxes, murders, wars and the rise and fall various kings in England between 1170 and 1219 C.E. Unlikely though it seems, the concentrations of lead (or absence of it) match the major historical events of the period almost exactly. Lead was a popular metal at the time, being used for all manner of things from church roofing, guttering and water pipes to stained glass windows and pottery glazing.

Murder of Thomas Becket (Image: Wikimedia Commons)

So, for example, when Archbishop of Canterbury Thomas Becket was murdered in 1170 by supporters loyal to King Henry II – and the king was subsequently excommunicated – lead production plummeted because no new churches were being built. This drop is reflected in the Swiss ice cores, which show extremely low levels of the usual lead pollution that would have been carried by prevailing winds from the mining areas of England. Similarly, three years later there is a spike in lead pollution as production ramped up due to a war with Scotland. There’s plenty more evidence over the following 50 years or so, with a clear correlation to historical events.

So what will future archaeologists see of the Covid-19 pandemic? Will there be any residual evidence anywhere that would correlate with the virus and changes to human activity of the time? There’s likely to be a PhD in this subject soon, and many a book (maybe The Corona Legacy?) but with lockdown time on my hands I thought I’d try and second-guess what archaeologists from, say, 2520 might find.

No, not yet...

Firstly, drawing on the Swiss ice core story above, there will almost certainly be a noticeable drop in general pollution particles – the dramatic drop in vehicle usage, especially in the world’s major cities – will likely leave a legacy in the earth. But that’s providing climate change hasn’t wiped out all snowfall and ice coverage before then.

Manufacturing has been hit hard by the virus and lockdown, so certain industries aren’t operating as fully (if at all), therefore raw materials aren’t needed anywhere near as much as they were. This echoes the ups and downs of lead mining in medieval times, but what sort of footprint it will leave and where is anyone’s guess, and might depend on archaeological technology yet to be invented.

Social distance queuing at a supermarket

Archaeologists who dig down to an old supermarket car park in 2520 might be delighted to discover traces of yellow paint on ancient asphalt, indicating where customers 500 years previously stood while queuing for access during the virus. (Imagine archaeologists’ excitement to discover an almost-complete Tesco, with aisles, shelves and – as today – absolutely no evidence of flour, baking powder or pasta…)

Dendrochronologists – who study tree rings and their meanings – might have a harder time than those analysing ice cores, but there is perhaps a possibility that some of the world’s trees will record the impact of Covid-19 as a blip in growth. If for example the lack of atmospheric pollution increases available sunlight to plants and trees, it’s possible they will enjoy a growth spurt as a result. Or possibly not; I’m no expert.

Bubonic Plague spread, 14th Century
Image: Wikimedia Commons

There might of course be some social and economic legacies from Covid-19. For example, the term ‘quarantine’ began as trentino in the mid-14^th century in what’s now the city of Dubrovnik. It was a result of the Black Death, and imposed a period of 30-day isolation on ships arriving from plague-ridden lands. Later, in Venice, this period of isolation was extended to 40 days and was called quarantino, which is where we get the word quarantine.

Now we are all becoming familiar with terms like ‘self-isolation’ and ‘social distancing’. There will likely be some new phrases that arise from the pandemic and which might ingrain themselves in our dictionaries, and remain there for etymologists to marvel over half a millennium from now. ‘Covidiot’ – someone who deliberately ignores pandemic regulations – is one of them, while WFH (Working From Home) might well become an acronym that will endure.

That’s because working from home might eventually become the new norm if businesses and organisations globally recognise that productivity can be just as high with employees using their homes as their workplaces, with no need for corporate offices (paying massive rents) to be sited in inner-city locations. 

Yay! No commuting!

Maybe in 500 years' time anthropologists will (from their own homes naturally) convene globally via mind-melding technology to discuss the period in history when the concept of working from home crystallised into an accepted norm - the time of the pandemic known back then as 'Coronavirus'.

Maybe. Remains to be seen.

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