The Road to a Better Future

The Tightly-Furled Umbrella takes a poke at our vehicle usage and wonders whether government intervention might not be a bad thing…

Picadilly Circus, with no performers

As the country has had plenty of time for thinking and general reflection on life’s values over the past few weeks, one of the things to come out of it is that a certain number of us plan to ‘do things differently’ in the future.

This could of course end up being no more binding than New Year resolutions – abandoned after a few weeks when we get tired of the effort – but one aspect that I'm really hoping will change is our use of motor vehicles. Make that 'overuse' of motor vehicles.

I would give anything to go into central London right now and experience the deserted streets with hardly any traffic and almost zero pollution. The peace and quiet would be novel too. But alas I'm not an essential worker (more ‘essentially lazy’ if anything) so I haven’t gone in, and it’s a bit far for me to justify as ‘exercise’.

Traffic cameras showing nearly empty roads on a weekday

But that annoyance apart, it would be wonderful to think that our cities’ streets might be a tad quieter and less congested post-pandemic due to a new realisation that, hey, maybe we don’t need to take the car out quite so often after all. Recent research indicates this could indeed be the case.

According to the UK government, data recently recorded at 275 automated sites show that journeys in vehicles are now around 35% to 45% of the usual level, and even that takes into account ‘creep’. (No, that's not the strange guy who drives past your place looking weirdly at your house – in this instance it means our vehicle usage has slowly crept back up since lockdown was introduced). The Automobile Association has reportedly said traffic volumes in Britain are now 'akin to those in the early 1970s' when they were just one-third of what they are today.

But this is obviously due to the government lockdown restrictions rather than any voluntary commitment on the part of vehicle owners to ‘go green’ or use their cars less for a better world. That said, another recent survey shows that many people are – post-pandemic regulations – expecting their use of buses and trains will drop and, importantly, 24% of those plan to work from home more.

Should the survey results translate into actual changes in behaviours, this could mean we’ll see much less traffic on the roads, drops in air pollution, fewer accidents, and less reliance as an economy on oil and petroleum products. The roads will become a bit safer for cyclists too.

So rather than wait for a voluntary change in behaviour could the government not instead legislate for fewer vehicles on the road? It’s been done before overseas, but did it work, and could it work here?

Flashback to New Zealand, 1979 - the country was facing an oil crisis where imports had become prohibitively costly, with OPEC raising the cost per barrel from US$12 to $19 during the first half of that year. Worse perhaps was the Iranian Revolution, which essentially shut down Iran’s oil industry - 5.7 million barrels per day were withdrawn from the world supply.

So, abandoning sheep shearing contests and leaving their pavlovas to go soggy the Kiwi government leapt into action and introduced the novel concept of ‘carless days’ on 30 July. They also reduced the open road speed limit from 62mph to 50mph.

The scheme – designed to reduce the nation’s demand for, and reliance on, oil imports - required those with private vehicles to nominate one day of the week on which they would not drive their vehicles. This was enforced with the introduction of heavy fines for those caught driving on their selected day. (There were exceptions for rural travel where public transport was almost non-existent, and ‘essential travel’ as in today’s lockdown) The carless days scheme applied only to petrol-powered vehicles and those weighing less than 4,400lbs. The restriction didn’t apply to motorbikes, scooters or mopeds.

NZ's carless day sticker selection. Image: Facebook

Less than a year after it began the scheme was scrapped, partly because it wasn’t popular but also because it didn’t reduce petrol consumption very much. (The reduced speed limit remained in place for a while longer) In principle carless days should have had an impact; private vehicle usage could have dropped by approximately one-seventh, but Kiwis are an inventive lot and many found ways of getting round the restrictions. Owning a second car was one of them (some bought a second vehicle just to avoid the scheme) while others purchased motorbikes.

A scathing newspaper column from the day also shows that an estimated 25 percent of Kiwis had successfully applied for legal exemptions to the scheme.

Obviously it wasn't working...

There’s a memory shared on Wikipedia of a bloke with a motorbike who could sometimes be found riding with his two flatmates as pillion passengers... plus a dog. A few clever Kiwis realised that if you applied for two different day stickers you could cover them in cling-film and easily attach or detach them from your windscreen according to whatever day of the week it wasn’t. Legally you were supposed to have your nominated sticker permanently attached.

But there are other stories – rather like those today from people feeling guilty about flouting the lockdown regulations – where motorists who drove their cars on their nominated carless day ended up feeling blameworthy and embarrassed. In short, there was a lack of engagement with and commitment to the scheme.

Accepted behaviour. 
Image: Wikimedia Commons

It’s a fact that if regulations of any sort are introduced some people will always find a way around them, but there are certain aspects of motoring where the culture has changed to match and support legislation, such as anti drink-driving, and the wearing of seat belts. So with the right approach to education, a groundswell of support in society, and enforcement and fines or points on your licence for flouting the law, behaviours can change. For carless days to be accepted today the concept would have to become the social norm.

So maybe post-pandemic would be a good time for the UK government to learn from New Zealand’s wobbly carless days scheme and introduce a better and more robust scheme here. Given that many people have realised during lockdown that they actually don’t need to drive their vehicles every day, this could be the perfect opportunity to permanently reduce the volume of traffic on our congested roads. The engagement and commitment might already be there.

Or is it a good time to buy shares in cling-film maybe?

Digging Into the Future

Will archaeologists and anthropologists in the year 2520 find evidence of the Covid-19 pandemic? The Tightly-Furled Umbrella ponders the possibilities…

I’ve always found archaeology fascinating, even though I’ve never taken part in a dig and have no qualifications. There was a time (let’s call it the Couchascene Period) where I could be found in front of the telly totally absorbed in Time Team. Trying to get me away from it would have been like trying to lift a complete Roman marble column out of the ground, so rooted to the spot was I.

Archaeological dig. Image: Wikimedia Commons

What I dig most about archaeology is the forensic detective work that goes with it – the analysis of items found, the layers in the ground, the comparison with what’s known historically of the area, the precision of carbon-dating and the eventual conclusions or suppositions about the finds. Modern-day archaeology has all the theatre of a crime drama, with clues unfolding gradually until a fuller picture emerges.

So you can imagine my excitement when I read recently about some ice core samples from the Swiss Alps (no seriously, stay with me...) that showed variations in medieval atmospheric lead pollution that can be linked to taxes, murders, wars and the rise and fall various kings in England between 1170 and 1219 C.E. Unlikely though it seems, the concentrations of lead (or absence of it) match the major historical events of the period almost exactly. Lead was a popular metal at the time, being used for all manner of things from church roofing, guttering and water pipes to stained glass windows and pottery glazing.

Murder of Thomas Becket (Image: Wikimedia Commons)

So, for example, when Archbishop of Canterbury Thomas Becket was murdered in 1170 by supporters loyal to King Henry II – and the king was subsequently excommunicated – lead production plummeted because no new churches were being built. This drop is reflected in the Swiss ice cores, which show extremely low levels of the usual lead pollution that would have been carried by prevailing winds from the mining areas of England. Similarly, three years later there is a spike in lead pollution as production ramped up due to a war with Scotland. There’s plenty more evidence over the following 50 years or so, with a clear correlation to historical events.

So what will future archaeologists see of the Covid-19 pandemic? Will there be any residual evidence anywhere that would correlate with the virus and changes to human activity of the time? There’s likely to be a PhD in this subject soon, and many a book (maybe The Corona Legacy?) but with lockdown time on my hands I thought I’d try and second-guess what archaeologists from, say, 2520 might find.

No, not yet...

Firstly, drawing on the Swiss ice core story above, there will almost certainly be a noticeable drop in general pollution particles – the dramatic drop in vehicle usage, especially in the world’s major cities – will likely leave a legacy in the earth. But that’s providing climate change hasn’t wiped out all snowfall and ice coverage before then.

Manufacturing has been hit hard by the virus and lockdown, so certain industries aren’t operating as fully (if at all), therefore raw materials aren’t needed anywhere near as much as they were. This echoes the ups and downs of lead mining in medieval times, but what sort of footprint it will leave and where is anyone’s guess, and might depend on archaeological technology yet to be invented.

Social distance queuing at a supermarket

Archaeologists who dig down to an old supermarket car park in 2520 might be delighted to discover traces of yellow paint on ancient asphalt, indicating where customers 500 years previously stood while queuing for access during the virus. (Imagine archaeologists’ excitement to discover an almost-complete Tesco, with aisles, shelves and – as today – absolutely no evidence of flour, baking powder or pasta…)

Dendrochronologists – who study tree rings and their meanings – might have a harder time than those analysing ice cores, but there is perhaps a possibility that some of the world’s trees will record the impact of Covid-19 as a blip in growth. If for example the lack of atmospheric pollution increases available sunlight to plants and trees, it’s possible they will enjoy a growth spurt as a result. Or possibly not; I’m no expert.

Bubonic Plague spread, 14th Century
Image: Wikimedia Commons

There might of course be some social and economic legacies from Covid-19. For example, the term ‘quarantine’ began as trentino in the mid-14^th century in what’s now the city of Dubrovnik. It was a result of the Black Death, and imposed a period of 30-day isolation on ships arriving from plague-ridden lands. Later, in Venice, this period of isolation was extended to 40 days and was called quarantino, which is where we get the word quarantine.

Now we are all becoming familiar with terms like ‘self-isolation’ and ‘social distancing’. There will likely be some new phrases that arise from the pandemic and which might ingrain themselves in our dictionaries, and remain there for etymologists to marvel over half a millennium from now. ‘Covidiot’ – someone who deliberately ignores pandemic regulations – is one of them, while WFH (Working From Home) might well become an acronym that will endure.

That’s because working from home might eventually become the new norm if businesses and organisations globally recognise that productivity can be just as high with employees using their homes as their workplaces, with no need for corporate offices (paying massive rents) to be sited in inner-city locations. 

Yay! No commuting!

Maybe in 500 years' time anthropologists will (from their own homes naturally) convene globally via mind-melding technology to discuss the period in history when the concept of working from home crystallised into an accepted norm - the time of the pandemic known back then as 'Coronavirus'.

Maybe. Remains to be seen.

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Working From Home

The isolated BoJo

Britain's Prime Minister has said that I now have to stay at home for a couple of weeks. Not personally of course; Boris didn't call me up and say, 'Mike, BoJo here. Just wanted you to know that with Coronavirus now driving my policies even more than Dominic, it might actually be a good idea for you not to go to the pub. I mean, quite so often. Or preferably not at all. Also, stay away from restaurants and theatres etc. Cheerio!'

But I got the message, along with everyone else, that it's best to do a bit of that isolation thing, to help flatten the curve and so forth. On the back of Boris's announcement, my wife Liz has been told by her employers to work from home (or WFH as the acronym has it). 'WTF, WFH?' she exclaimed just yesterday when she got the directive. 'OMG!' she said, punching the air. She's trendy with her acronym usage, possibly due to FOMO.

Isolation essentials

FYI she's just come back from an 0630 trip to the supermarket to buy supplies for us - Burgundy, Chardonnay, Riesling, that sort of thing - and said that even at that ridiculously early hour Tesco was 'like a Saturday afternoon', so obviously everyone else is in survival mode and preparing for a fortnight of staying home. (Brings a whole new definition to the term Remainers, she noted)

But I can tell you now that I didn't punch the air - I just felt like punching Boris because I'm at home 99 percent of the time anyway, so I was already flattening the Covid-19 curve without even trying. And I've been wearing face masks, but that's because I spend most of my time doing home renovation stuff that involves lots of dust and chaos. (In fact we even developed a crest with the Latin motto for that: Pulvis et Inordinatio). In short, I deserve a mention in the Queen's Birthday Honours for services to public health. Mike Bodnar, D.I.Y., O.B.E.

So to be at home for two weeks is, for me, something of a busman's holiday (Millennials, just Google it) and my daily routines of measuring, sawing, sanding and painting will remain unchanged. I'm not sure whether my need for another box of 5x50 general purpose-type brass screws will qualify as 'essential' and enable me to travel to the hardware store but we'll see. And if I am allowed to go out at least I have a good supply of face masks, hairnet-type head covers, safety goggles and rubber gloves, so I can look like something out of The Andromeda Strain without trying.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

But Liz has come up with an idea that legitimately allows us out for 'essential travel': across the way from us is a row of houses in which almost every occupant is in the vulnerable category due to age and/ or medical conditions, so we're going to do a leaflet drop and offer to do their grocery shopping for them if they'd like. Of course they could choose to shop online and have everything delivered, but they might actually prefer a neighbour's help. As Liz pointed out, while Brexit divided the nation, it could be that Coronavirus brings it back together, united in adversity as it were. A bit like the Second World War and the Dig for Victory campaign, only more like Digging In for Victory.

The fact that while we're out doing shopping for our local vulnerables and that one of them might - just possibly, almost by accident - need some Chardonnay and a box of 5x50 brass screws is of course pure coincidence. Honestly officer.


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